[skissane]

> The vast vast majority of Americans are ok with contraceptives, same sex marriage has firm constitutional basis, etc these aren’t going away

Across-the-board bans on contraception aren't happening, because almost nobody wants such a ban.

But overturning Obergefell? I think it is likely. According to 2021 polling data [0], there is still majority opposition to marriage equality in Mississippi (55% oppose) and Arkansas (52% oppose). It looks like the state government trying to overturn it would be a vote-winner in those two states – especially considering that people who actually vote often skew older and more conservative than the population in general, so opposition to it in those states may be even stronger among voters. There are other states where support is still quite weak, such as Alabama (49% support, 47% opposition) and South Carolina (50% support), so the same might be true for them as well. It only takes one state to act to get a case before the Supreme Court.

[0] https://ava.prri.org/#lgbt/2021/States/lgbt_ssm/2,3,9

[poulsbohemian]

>Across-the-board bans on contraception aren't happening, because almost nobody wants such a ban.

Except the Catholic Church, and 6 mostly conservative members of SCOTUS happen to be Catholic.

[skissane]

While the Catholic Church does teach that artificial contraception is inherently sinful, it’s leadership has not - certainly in recent decades - displayed any interest in having that moral view enforced by law. If no state enacts a general ban on contraception, SCOTUS will never get the opportunity to directly rule on its constitutionality.

Also, much of the success of the movement to restrict abortion has been because it has been a cross-faith alliance - Catholics, Evangelicals, Mormons, Orthodox Jews, among others. The same winning formula won’t work for a general ban on contraception, because Catholics are the only member of that coalition who believe that artificial contraception is inherently sinful-the others view its moral acceptability as more situation-dependent.