[stareatgoats]

Climate science is in its infancy. No I'm not a "climate denier": we can can be reasonably confident that the science is correct in asserting that we are in a period of climate warming, caused in large part by increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the most part caused by the accelerated burning of fossile fuels.

But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. We know we are in a period of relative high flux (compared to previous centuries), but we don't know what comes after the immediate future.

People may draw different conclusions from this, mine is that we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to. We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios.

For example, whatever scenario that wins out will likely create massive migration pressures. How do we deal with that, humanely?

[ASalazarMX]

It's not reverting to a natural climate, it's trying to not make it worse by pumping even more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The adaptation we have to make is finding a way to keep most of our comforts in a sustainable way, and that won't come from recycling plastic or driving an EV, but from industry and regulation.

[stareatgoats]

> from industry and regulation

I agree. These tools should make our crash landing softer than a laissez faire policy. But

1. I'm pessimistic about the true intent of the powers that be. While paying lip service to climate action there is hardly any real action: renewables are just an extra energy source on top of the existing cheap fossil fuels that give nations some independence vs the gulf states. There is a scramble for every newly discovered oilfield - and it's not because they want to prevent the extraction. And

2. If governments succeed against all odds in phasing out fossil fuels we would still be faced with massive climate change sooner or later - be it a new ice age or whatever. These are things that are out of our control - we need to make sure we can adapt, not try to control it.

[ASalazarMX]

I'm actually not against oil extraction, it has many, many uses besides burning it as fuel. Renewables could fill that gap. I agree that governments seem to drag their feet, tossing the hot potato to the future.

About the next big climate change, you're right, those are inevitable given enough centuries. If it happens, people will deal with it in their time, but let's try not to cause one ourselves.

[lm28469]

> We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios.

It's much easier to tell people to buy a Tesla than to tell them their children/descendants will have a much worse time on this planet.

There are many things we could do to adapt and curve the issue, but it looks like we're going to suck every last bit of resource of this planet until it kills us.

[lamontcg]

> we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to.

Very hard disagree. This is about all that matters. We've turned up the bunson burner heating up the Earth. What we don't know is _precisely_ how the entire climate system will respond to it, but it is a pretty good guess that if we leave it long enough and keep cranking it up that it'll eventually get really bad. We already see the weakening of the temperature gradient between the arctic and lower latitudes and the weakening of the jet stream and the formation of atmospheric blocking that is creating both large and persistent record heat spells in the northern hemisphere summer and cold snaps in the NH winter. We need to stop making that worse and rolling the dice to see how bad it'll get (which is a dictionary-definition _Conservative_ viewpoint).

[stareatgoats]

> We need to stop making that worse

I think it should be clear that we agree on that. My gripe is with the notion that we might be able to turn back the clock to some sort of pristine natural state - and keep it at that.

We can't and we won't. There is no such pristine natural climate "balance". We have enjoyed a few millennia of climate that has been exceptionally conducive to our present way of life (based on crops and livestock) - during which our species has prospered. This as been an anomaly in terms of geological ages, and instead of putting our efforts into calling names and casting blame for the current predicament we should concentrate on how to continue surviving under new and probably harsh conditions. That's all.