[CrazyStat]

> In the presence of outliers the median is a better predictor of underlying long-teem trends.

Not if outliers are REALLY FUCKING IMPORTANT, like, say, extreme weather events.

[thehappypm]

Outliers are likely to drag the averages down, not up. The only really substantial global outlier events are volcanic eruptions, which cause a net cooling. Everything else (hurricanes and the like) is just heat moving around

[CrazyStat]

We're looking at individual airport temperature records here, not global means.

[thehappypm]

So? A big volcanic eruption could cool many airports.

[CrazyStat]

Once we recognize that we're talking about local rather than global there are many local outliers that increase temperatures, countering your argument that volcanic eruptions are the only global outliers.

[glitchc]

Extreme weather events are a symptom of global warming, not a cause.

[WalterGR]

Yes and?

[glitchc]

And that means their measurement contributes to the noise when attempting to identify the long-term causal trend. Taking the median is the correct step. One doesn’t measure the output and assume it’s the input.