[sterlind]

it took at most a billion years. there may have been predecessors that were lost - the only evidence we have from that era is what made it into the DNA of surviving ancestors.

I guess I still feel like abiogenesis should be the bigger filter. we have ideas and suggestive experiments about how it happened, but nothing's come close to convincingly demonstrating how fully self-replicating life can evolve through simple steps. whereas endosymbiosis just seems to require two prokaryotes from different trees surviving in the same membrane, and it's not difficult for me to imagine a plasmid slipping in and making copies of enough enzymes to get by.

[simonh]

As I pointed out though, endosymbiosis isn’t by itself enough. It can provide many benefits, one of which might be the ability to develop complex sophisticated multicellular organisms, but it doesn’t guarantee that capability.

This sub thread is specifically about developing intelligent life, and of all the branches of multicellular life on earth only one has achieved that capacity, animals. None of the others seem to be anywhere close, or ever likely to be, for all their fancy biochemical tricks. So it seems like the vast majority of endosymbiotic events really don’t help much towards that outcome.