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by anthony_romeo 1466 days ago
In the past, a recession was defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP [I think the definition has loosened somewhat recently, but I’ll ignore that].

Real GDP (which accounts for inflation) was up in 4Q 2021, but down 1Q 2022. Based on a somewhat arbitrarily-selected article I briefly skimmed the beginning of, Real GDP is expected to be up in 2Q.

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-d...

Of course, it always comes down to the details, which I haven’t really looked into.