None of it has ever happened before during a recession. Crypto basically didn’t exist the last time the world had one. Being religious and so sure about the way something is going to turn out should be a warning sign to the self.
> None of it has ever happened before during a recession
We are not currently in a recession.
If we get into a recession in the next quarter or two, there's no harm done to crypto. The market is headed into bear territory regardless of the macro economic climate.
I swear no one remembers 2017. Thousands of projects that raised billions of dollars died. No one cares. The market rebuilds itself every 3-5 years. This is absolutely no different.
You are correct that people will continue to engage in stupid gambling. The problem is they're not going to have gobs of cheap money to throw into it and get leveraged 100x on which drives a lot of the speculative value.
Great! That means people will invest in cryptocurrency projects with good fundamentals and that deliver value, instead of the pure speculation that we've suffered until now.
It has literally happened once before, that does not mean it is going to revive again. What if we're at crypto saturation and the demand won't cover another crash?
I have no idea if it's true, but it seems like people are writing about contagion within crypto, as if it is more substantial than last time, and worrying a little bit about it affecting the rest of the economy.
This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it?
> This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it?
- ICOs
- DAOs
- NFTs
- Yield
- Earn
- Farming
etc. All of these can be ephemeral concepts within a single crypto bull cycle. Regardless of whether or not you think crypto is valuable, there's no denying people love money. So long as crypto remains unregulated there will always be bull markets imo.
> None of it has ever happened before during a recession.
The 2020 Covid crash was a recession. A very short one, but also one of the most severe since the Great Depression. Bitcoin crashed from about $10,000 to $4,000 in the span of 3 weeks, before recovering and peaking at nearly $70,000.
What people are entirely missing here is the massive economic indicators flashing that are preempting this crypto stuff. The US dollar is about to be devalued and take with it, the entire global economy. We're heading into a serious depression, not just a little 2008 recession here. $9-10 gal of gas by October and double of all goods and food prices likely by Sept-October time frame. The outlook is growing very bleak.
In and of itself, yes. But there's a real risk (far from a certainty, but a real risk) that it will cause some kind of crisis of confidence in the markets more broadly that could result in a much more catastrophic crash.
Hopefully this time, we get some regulator action so we're never back here again. Each time the cycle gets bigger, the tendrils work their way into traditional finance - and more people get hurt. This time, the Quebec public servants are getting rekt on their investment into Celsius [1]. Now it's hurting pensioners, not just a bunch of degenerate gamblers and moonbois.
It's fine for a bunch of pokemon card traders to get rekt - but by the time you get to 3AC scale, it's time for regulators to put the kibosh on the whole space. They're securities. They either get registered or you go to Club Fed.
With all due respect, fingers crossed, this time it does not work out.
> Now it's hurting pensioners, not just a bunch of degenerate gamblers and moonbois.
No, that's your public institution making degenerate gambles on late-stage startups. The largest venture capital investor in Canada isn't some poor victim, they are the perpetrators, the owners. It's completely laughable to paint them as a victim of some crypto-ecosystem heist.
The victim is the pensioners, not necessarily the gambling fund. "regulator action" can refer to simply preventing sensitive/prison funds from going into certain classes of risky ventures, and not regulation against crypto itself.
I take the position that cryptos are clearly securities under the Howey test. It's pretty self-evident. As such, they must be registered in order to be traded by anyone other than an accredited investor. To be clear, this is the law of the land today. All that's missing is regulatory enforcement action.
Question: what is the point of crypto if it becomes regulated like traditional financial assets? Crypto doesn't have any actual use-value like stocks or real estate, and its entire selling point was that it's decentralized and unregulated.
Simplifies and modernizes cross-border flows. Try buying shares in a firm listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange—you’ll spend days to weeks dealing with middlemen. Should be a couple clicks to submit to a public ledger.
I don’t see where lack of regulation is a selling point—it greatly limits invested capital.
As far as I can see, https://wise.com/us/ is in all ways a better way to simplify cross-border flows than crypto. When working with overseas teams, it is literally how they ask to be paid.
Isn't the reason buying international shares is slow that they don't want you to do it and therefore have regulated it?
There's no technical merit in crypto that actually makes things fast, it's just a regulation dodge. It's necessarily slower and more expensive than TransferWise.
They have decided it's better to avoid their local businesses being beholden to foreign investors, which is a case that can be argued.
If you're being directed mostly by overseas investors who will never see your actual operation in person, that increases the pressure to cook the books, either on a direct accounting-level basis, or by cutting corners in operations, environmental or labour standards, or product quality.
Notice how some countries insist on joint ventures with a 51% local partner, which similarly ensures there's some local skin in the game.
No - crypto does nothing for cross-border flows. It could only make it worse. Purchasing shares in foreign countries say France often (not always) requires one to go through an approved French broker (middleman). Why?
- so there's somebody in France that can *make money* being the middle man
- so the French broker can be held to some standards reporting and what not. For example, the French broker at risk of criminal prosecution cannot sell shares to NK or Iran.
- so the rules around transfer of shares for payment and settlement are set so people can't be screwing each over or not completing settlement in a timely fashion
- because of scale: there are zillions of trades done every day. that's why netting-out is a real thing. settlement has to be fast, tight, nailed down. And regulation helps with that through known pre-approved brokers with set roles and responsibilities
Also consider that unlike crypto you gotta settle. Settlement is serious. And settle in a bonafide currency that everybody agrees is a currency: EUR, for example. And you have fixed time to do it in.
You can't be waving your hands with some stupid story about how your broker/holder of crypto,
- stopped you from withdrawing your stuff
- is down
- is in chapter 7 or 11
- that you forgot your crypto keys
- and the entity getting the cash for selling shares isn't gonna wait around for some miner to "approve" your transfer maybe in 10 mins ... or maybe tomorrow
I think the settlement story for bitcoin is actually superior than with USD/EUR. Yes you have to wait 10min x a few blocks, but that is final, irreversible settlement.
I mean, so is FedNow and RTP and SEPA - the list goes on and on - none of which are blockchain powered. They settle instantly and finally. In the case of international transfers, the delay is intentional for regulatory and risk management purposes. Not technical reasons. So the advantage of crypto isn't technology but regulatory arbitrage.
Except for the possibility of unconfirmed transactions if the network is under load right? With both centrally registered clients and counterparts what’s the case for decentralisation here again?
"Crypto doesn't have any actual use-value..."
Same can be said for most financial instruments yet they're regulated. Gambling has no "real world use-value" yet it is heavily regulated.
There was never any in crypto either. Anyone who thought so is just as stupid as the HN'ers that think cryptocurrencies are bogus. Thinking a few over leveraged crypto companies getting wiped out will destroy cryptocurrencies is laughable.