Yes but remember to think in terms of expected value. Which is kind of the “average” value of all the different return values you might get.
12% is the high end, but what are the probabilities of smaller results? 12% might be the outlier and the expected value might be hovering around zero or less.
Yes, however in a less aggressive tech market the return would have probably been 0. This was also the best case, the P/E buyout and subsequent funding injections may have diluted the value of those shares.
My point was to the people aiming for 100x or better gains. I didn't speak to the downside, you're correct of course: no specific vesting tends to the aggregate, and many are a long way adrift.
12% is the high end, but what are the probabilities of smaller results? 12% might be the outlier and the expected value might be hovering around zero or less.