[bpodgursky]

These are fairly different arguments. Japan's working hours are traditionally brutal - 12 hours a day, 6-7 days a week. Plus mandatory "happy" hours.

It's often a financially comfortable life; but there's 0 flexibility to find an employer that allows a 9-5 workday, even if you're willing to take a pay cut.

Elon is saying that high-paid professionals in the US have fewer children than the lower-middle class, which is absolutely true. Doctors, lawyers, and engineers are far below replacement fertility.

[nonameiguess]

That seems to be missing that many of those highly-paid professionals were not highly paid in their peak fertile years. Engineers maybe, but doctors and lawyers tend to spend many years in school and then interning. If you start having kids at 30, you'll usually end up with fewer total kids than if you had started at 20. The most highly paid engineers are likely those willing and able to relocate frequently, too, which brings its own challenges. Money is needed to feel secure enough to start a family, but so are stable living arrangements and social structures.

[bpodgursky]

Having known many people who went through medical school and residency, I'm confident almost none of them would have accelerated their family plans with more money. Medical residents who work 80 hour weeks simply have less than 0 time to start a family.

(And in fact, of the very few who did, it is always when the husband was a resident and the wife stay-at-home or a different career. In these cases, the finances were not a huge constraint; if nothing else, it is extremely easy to take on cheap debt as a resident.)

I can't speak as confidently to lawyers and interning, but I'd be surprised if the dynamic was different.

[giantg2]

Even if starting at 30, that doesn't explain it being < 2. There are medical interventions on both sides of the equation (birth controls and fertility treatments). Preferences are the main drivers in my opinion.

[kurthr]

In my experience Japan's working hours haven't been 12hr or 6-7 days a week for more than a decade due to government regulation and cultural consensus (although commutes are still very long). China's 996 work culture was still close to this, but it has died in the last couple of years and has been replaced in pop culture with "laying flat" = tang ping 007... or even "bai lan".

[FooBarBizBazz]

> Doctors, lawyers, and engineers are far below replacement fertility.

If you really want a "fun" way to look at it, find an IQ vs. fertility rate chart. Only IQs of 80 and lower are above replacement.

[prirun]

Idiocracy: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/

[bpodgursky]

Obviously true, but I had a chat with Kolmogorov and he gave some tips on how to reframe it into a politically acceptable version.