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by Vladimof 1467 days ago
Everything is crashing.... Good luck
1 comments

While my portfolio is -15% YTD overall, BTC is -33% in a week.

It's not even remotely comparable. I even have some stuff (Shell) that have done really well actually.

Despite inflation, US dollar is strengthening, defense stocks are doing great. And commodities are also up and rising. I-Bonds are yielding 9%+ and TIPS are doing good.

You just gotta know how to navigate a bear market.

BTC is up 800% over the past 5 years. S&P 500 is up 53%.
'Just zoom out bro' doesn't account for the rise of stablecoins in the past 2 years.

The majority of people who joined the cryptocoin world are underwater.

The majority of people who joined the stock market world, within the past year, are also underwater.
I bought my SHEL in January. +20% actually. I'm not even someone who timed it that well, I know somebody talking about how oil was oversold in 2020 when the price of oil hit negative $40 and bought into the exact valley.

Even then: SHEL is kind of a bad bet. I was expecting that Europe would try to be more dependent upon European oil, but it turns out that American Oil (XOM) was the real winner of the Ukraine / Russia conflict.

I've also bought into TIPS / I-Bonds as this inflation thing is getting worse. Hopefully those do well in the coming months (or maybe not, they're more of an "inflation hedge", in that I know they'll do good if inflation goes bad. No, not the "crypto" kind of hedge, I mean something that's _ACTUALLY_ tied to inflation and does better-and-better the worse inflation gets).

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The key in these times is to remember what does good during recessions and war. And keep your wits about you as well. There's plenty of good buys if you know where to look.

All those cryptobros buying in 2020 or 2021 for "inflation hedge" have their moment to prove their theories today. My inflation hedge, TIPS/I-Bonds, are yielding 9% right now. How well are your cryptos doing?

An article did a what if you bought just before each major stock crash.

Turns out you still did really well.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9caen6S_dA

You need to round that value down a bit, like, every minute. Or manipulate the time frame.
Tulips were up once too.
And currency was once backed by commodities.
Currency did and has its uses unlike Crypto which is running on promises. And everyone hates promises in Javascript.
Approximately nobody hates promises in Javascript.