[lotsofpulp]

Is it possible this is a consequence of proportionally fewer economic opportunities (i.e. increasing income/wealth gap)? Maybe the combination of low hanging fruit having been picked, and automation and technology allowing for massive economies of scale inevitably lead to a “big getting bigger” scenario. And because the lower hanging fruit has been picked, the risk and hence barrier to entry is very high for non conventional routes.

[majormajor]

I think there's a really interesting question in there of "is it a cause, or an effect," that I honestly don't have a strong opinion on currently.

I would lean towards cause instead of effect, though.

So where you say, "low hanging fruit has been picked resulting in high barrier to entry," I say, "this zero-sum-game of maximizing academic profiles starting in preschool has resulted in higher barriers to entry because the less well-off you are, the harder it is to both know what to maximize and have the time to do it."

I see it as a "everyone's defecting in a prisoner's dilemma resulting in everyone having a worse time" game theory problem.

If you try to be "merit" based but don't have reliable ways of separating "merit" from "grinding" then you're gonna end up with a lot of grinders as people figure it out.

[lotsofpulp]

When I write the low hanging fruit has been picked, I mean things like online marketplaces and digital communications expanding the competition to the whole country or world even.

Whereas before, there were regional arbitrage opportunities due to difficulties in scaling, these arbitrage opportunities are greatly reduced because information flies fast and far, and bigger players can take advantage first.

In a situation like this, people may notice that the decreasing probabilities of “getting ahead” via non traditional means and stick to obtaining the “elite” signaling and joining the big entities that are growing.