[iconjack]

In my opinion, a fair evaluation of "expert" opinion, at least over the last decade or so, would conclude experts are almost worthless. I have no doubt there are true experts in the world, who's analysis and predictions do much better than monkeys throwing darts, but the landscape is so littered with grifters, and there is such a lack of fair scorekeeping, that identifying true experts is impossible. Most certainly that is true when it comes to politics, and unfortunately just about everything, including a lot of science, is just politics pretending to be otherwise, whether it be covid, global warming, economics, what have you.

[ndr]

This book[0] documents a researcher doing exactly that, and it confirms your opinion.

It's what fueled Superforcasting, and most of what legitimizes prediction markets

[0] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/89158.Expert_Political_J...