| Russian here. I condemn this war but let's be realistic. The extremely poor performance of Russian military at the start of the war is due to the following factors: - extreme underestimation of Ukrainian people and government will to resist the occupation - extremely poor planning and overstretching the communication lines - frontlines in the beginning of the campaign were vastly undermanned for a conventional war (ww2 fronts in the same are had 5-15 times more soldiers per km) - many troops in the initial wave were unwilling to fight this particular opponent. Brother nation and all that. Now, many of these factors are no longer the same. Fronts are shrinked. RAF military better understands the capabilities of the UAF, and is countering their tactics more efficiently. Soldiers are better equipped with night vision equipment, drones, and they use artillery without hesitation. And most of all, new troops coming to front are no longer the kind of people who were brought in for a military exercise and found themselves invading Ukraine: they consciously signed up a (lucrative for provincial russians) military contract and know exactly what their objective is. The humiliation is such thing. Yes, you are humiliated, so what? USSR was humiliated in the Winter war, yet, people often forget that it actually won it, taking 20% of Finland ( * ). Currently, Putin holds 20% of Ukraine, and I assess he can get a further 10% at this rate by the year end. (Russia does have the resources to fight it till the end of the year, meanwhile the western public is clearly oversatiated with this war - last week I haven't seen a single Ukraine related topic trending on Twitter) * - one can argue that Soviet poor performance in Winter war has led Hitler to attack USSR, but 1) I believe Hitler would have attacked regardless, high on confidence after having beaten France and 2) there are nobody now to attack Russia but possibly China, who wouldn't risk it while it is still in one piece. After it desintegrates as a result of Putin's genius rule, probably, I'll take some far East provinces, but not now. Also, unsuccessful wars are the best reality check if you manage to survive them, so if anything, Ukraine war experience will highly improve the real capabilities of Russian military. Equipment can be replaced far more easily than capable soldiers with war experience. |
On your 2nd and 3rd points, you might be right. But have you considered the Russian war technique of Maskirovka and military feints?
Maybe (somewhat) surrounding the capital city was pure incompetence or was actually part of the plan, either way, it sufficiency tied up and discombobulated Ukrainian forces and allowed Russia to advance in the Donboss.
It's interesting to read comments from other Westerners who are so totally sure of Russias objectives but have never read Putin's invasion speech (which lays out the stated objectives) or any other Russian officials comments. Because that would be below them; all Russians are alcoholic, corrupt barbarians, don't you know?