[adam_arthur]

The tricky thing is that the right action really depends on whether the Fed is serious about tackling inflation.

Buying assets is a terrible hedge, if those assets are valued for 0% rate env, and we're entering a 5%+ rate env. Housing and 100x sales tech stocks are a great example

My view is that the Fed is serious, and we'll run up to ~4% 10y and suffer a recession that kills off inflation.

Hold cash until the discount rate peaks, then buy bonds. Wait for recession fears to peak, then buy equities.

4% 10y is a safe buy level imo, but entirely possible that we go even higher, or suffer recession/disinflation before then.

Energy inflation is likely here to stay though