[wolfram74]

Simulations don't matter if your starting parameters don't fit reality, maybe the population of dust in this range was poorly understood around the L2 point? We've got loads of missions there, but maybe none of them would notice anything like this.

[Termitiono]

In the current situation with this amount of information it could be a lot of different things.

Also from a statistical standpoint it's totally valid that this event happened now as it could just mean that a similar event is not happening for the next 50 years.

[klyrs]

> it could just mean that a similar event is not expected to happen for the next 50 years.

Fixed that for ya. There are no guarantees. Micrometeorites are both fast and tiny, and you can only make statistical estimates. But when the rubber hits the road, it's entirely possible for 100d20 to come up 100 twice in a row.