I can't believe that Gruber (for example) would claim with a straight face "Money is how you keep score" after years of attacking Microsoft who massively won on both marketshare and profitshare on the desktop. (They've fallen slightly behind in profit the last year or so, but take any longer period and they murder Apple. By Gruber's own metric this means Apple's computers sucked, and in that case why should we be excited about their phone?)
This is true but it's something both sides are guilty of.
The most vocal Android proponent I know carps on about market share incessantly as a measure of it's superiority despite having spent the best part of two decades reacting to Window's dominance with the old "eat shit, a billion flies can't be wrong".
The truth is that both sides have some interesting challenges ahead.
Google have just bought a device maker (who just posted a significant loss) which could very realistically harm it's relationships with other manufactures (including Samsung). Meanwhile Samsung - the best Android phone manufacturer right now - are also now signed up to provide Windows Phones and are investing in Bada. And pretty much all Android phone manufacturers are operating on pretty thin margins because of the competition.
Plus Kindle and others are starting to fragment what Android means - are app developers going to be held back by having to keep things running on the far older Fire version if they want to access what is likely to be a massive market? Oh, and those pesky little patents suits aren't going anywhere in a hurry and are likely to be, at the very least, expensive. On the upside it now has a mass market advantage and a lot of people betting on it.
Meanwhile Apple's previous unrivalled dominance in terms of product quality has significantly eroded (if not disappeared altogether) and it's iPod -> iPhone upgrade path is dropping away as the iPod ceases to be a big seller (though the Mac is now becoming mass market which at the very least boosts the Apple brand and awareness).
The iPad is still the undisputed king of tablets but that's likely to at the very least come under more sustained pressure than it has so far as further iterations of Android tablets improve. Plus the potential for a post-Jobs psychological hit exists and, those patent suits aren't just running one way.
And both of them are going to be threatened by Nokia and MS getting their shit together with a couple of nice looking phones, a billion dollar marketing budget and a shed load of brand recognition in the mass market space.
Bottom line - I don't think anyone should carp right now, this thing is a long way from playing out.
Your post is all very reasonable, but do you not realise that this quote ...
"And pretty much all Android phone manufacturers are operating on pretty thin margins because of the competition."
... simply isn't true, and the only reason you think that is because it has become an accepted truth in the Apple echo-chamber? (Mostly by intentionally fudging between mobile phone and smartphone numbers depending on whichever makes Apple sound better).
Morotola Mobility just posted another loss in the last few days, LG have been losing money for 2 years now with no sign of turning it round. HTC margins are "disappointing" and their share price has dropped considerably in the last few months in large part because of the competition in the market (source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/htc-profit-up-68-on-demand-...). HTC are making good profits but their margins aren't great.
Samsung are doing well but I'm not seeing anyone else wooping it up but I'd love to see anything that contradicts that (I own no Apple stock and I'm really not that vested one way or the other).
From eyeballing that chart it appears he's counting the whole of Apple's profits towards that graph despite the title being "Operating Profit from Mobile Phones".
I don't consider Asymco an independant source, indeed, they are a key part of the Apple echo-chamber that created this myth. (I mean what kind of pseudo- mobile-phone market analyst gets everything about Android, Symbian and Windows Phone wrong? He even fluffed the iPhone numbers last time, so he's not even a one-trick-pony).
> From eyeballing that chart it appears he's counting the whole of Apple's profits towards that graph despite the title being "Operating Profit from Mobile Phones".
I think you need to look closer. While Apple don't break profit data down by product line (I don't believe) he's not that cack handed. If you read through the comments you'd see that he won't use the Samsung telecoms unit figures as these are meaningless in this context so it seems unlikely that he'd use an even more crass approximation for Apple (and this can be confirmed by checking the number he uses against the number Apple publish - they're not the same. If you wish to confirm this remember Apple's Q2 is not calendar Q2).
> I don't consider Asymco an independant source [...]
You may not like his views but he shows data, he shows his working, he answers questions in the comments and on twitter about why he's done something a certain way. Hell, when he messes up public predictions he even rakes over his own errors publicly in more detail than anyone else would.
In the face of this level of openness simply saying you don't consider him an independent source isn't a good argument if you don't show that his data or working is wrong, or provide contrary evidence.
Please show some numbers that show that right now someone other than Samsung is getting anything close to Apple level profit margins on handsets.
> Mostly by intentionally fudging between mobile phone and
> smartphone numbers depending on whichever makes Apple
> sound better)
I am especially interested in examples to illustrate this your point. Some dumb phone manufacturer has higher margins than Apple with iPhone and Apple chooses to ignore that?
From all reports it is true. Apple has the highest margins in the industry. People may not like Apple or it's products, but their business savvy cannot be questioned. Locking in certain manufacturing lines for years has made it near impossible for their competitors to compete and still make any money.
That's completely wrong. Yes, money is how you keep score. But no, just because Microsoft had a higher "score" (protip: microsoft won) doesn't mean that Apple's computers suck.
Gruber is not saying that Apple makes more money than X, therefore X sucks. He is saying Apple makes more many than X, therefore Apple is winning.
No one has ever claimed that Apple won the PC war.
I think you're mistaken. There have been around 40 million iPads sold, whereas Windows 7 alone has sold over 400 million copies (released a few months before the iPad). iPad surpassing PC sales would be a heck of an achievement.
I can't believe that Gruber (for example) would claim with a straight face "Money is how you keep score" after years of attacking Microsoft who massively won on both marketshare and profitshare on the desktop. (They've fallen slightly behind in profit the last year or so, but take any longer period and they murder Apple. By Gruber's own metric this means Apple's computers sucked, and in that case why should we be excited about their phone?)