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by FireBeyond
1477 days ago
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> and gives dates with lots of caveats/uncertainties attached to them (that the media never reports) When is FSD coming? According to Musk, he's said every year for the last seven years running that it is coming "this year" or "months away", and the only "caveat" he's ever mentioned is "subject to regulatory approval", and that is clearly factually incorrect. FSD is not, and certainly was not "complete but for legal approvals". Unless you have some other explanation for what "You will be able to drive coast to coast, with zero driver interventions, this year". At some point repeatedly "aiming big" becomes a caricature, and then eventually seen for the BS/hype it is. |
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I disagree. There are different incentives at play. I'll list the few I see.
When does FSD come? You can't say stuff like "10 years out". That'd be a hard sell in academia and an even harder sell in business. Moreover, Tesla is trying to move as fast as possible. The other issue is that they have to give a deadline estimate. As we all know, the business world cannot operate without any deadline estimates. So Elon gives them. If it sounds vaguely familiar to software engineering that's because it's the same misaligned incentive at play here, but then at a larger scale.
Also, he aimed big, and some of those big aims actually became reality. Isn't it the case with R&D and innovation that you have to fail a lot? It isn't easy.
So now we're in a situation where there are people that demand: whatever Tesla decides to innovate on must be a success and accurately estimated time-wise. No organization in the world has ever been able to do that, so to expect that is a fool's errand, IMO.