The robotaxi’s draw will be its lower prices. They are removing the cost of a driver from the equation. Assuming the car felt as safe as a normal taxi, I’d take the cheaper one.
Well, we'd have to look at the cost of the hardware and maintenance and fallback remote operators and the R&D investment to evaluate whether a robotaxi fleet is indeed cheaper. And how much cheaper is it, exactly? 5%? 10%? 15%?
Would you pay a little more to have the most flexible, sophisticated intelligence on Earth (human brain + driver assist) or would you want to save a few dollars and risk having some dumb piece of software strand you in the middle of the road somewhere?
We all use Google Maps or Apple Maps when driving and most of us have seen these systems do boneheaded things. Just imagine the dumb things a robotaxi could do.
So robotaxis are perhaps mainly attractive to the very low income parts of population, people who might buy an inferior product to save a dollar or two. People who buy store-brand ketchup instead of Heinz ketchup even though it doesn't taste as good.
It's hard for a normal person to be excited about this.
I presume the human is still the most expensive cost. So you might be looking at cost reduction of over 50%. If that were true, then I would definitely take the robotaxi, assuming it's reached human safety levels of course. On the off chance that they leave me stranded, I'll file a complaint for full refund, and then just take another one
In other words, you believe the cost of the human is subtracted but there is no additional hardware/maintenance/remote-operation/R&D-investment cost to add?
Anyway, I think we can all agree that the only benefit of a robotaxi is that it's cheaper. And we don't know how much cheaper. So it's not surprising that most people aren't excited about them.
I don't know a single person who cares about robotaxis. In my experience, if you talk to people about robotaxis they just don't see it as big step forward. "What's the point?"
I think people under estimate just how much cheaper it is.
Conservatively, suppose the car lasts 100k miles, and costs $50k including maintenance. Suppose it gets 10mpg, and each trip is 5 miles. Gas is $6/gallon.
100k miles = 20k trips.
20k trips for $50k cost = $2.50 per ride + $3 gas = $5.50 fixed cost per ride, which is significantly cheaper than pretty much anything.
If my city had better public transport, I would use it more often. I don't like driving around everywhere. It's labor. While I am also pushing for better public transport, robotaxis can also fill that gap, provided it is cheap enough
Not even lower prices, but even to continue the current prices of Uber and Lyft (without burning VC cash), automation is needed. Even with the low pay for human drivers today, that's still too much for the prices charged by ride sharing to be sustainable.
Based on what? Ride share companies don't absorb any of the cost of vehicle maintenance, insurance, or fuel. Drivers are subsidizing a significant amount of the capital costs of running a taxi business that isn't exactly reflected in prices.
Additionally there's the problem of the market tolerating current prices. Like gasoline, even if the cost comes down it doesn't mean price goes down. Profit margins will increase if the market can sustain current prices.
> Based on what? Ride share companies don't absorb any of the cost of vehicle maintenance, insurance, or fuel. Drivers are subsidizing a significant amount of the capital costs of running a taxi business that isn't exactly reflected in prices.
Ultimately there's profit, drivers wouldn't do it if it weren't profitable.
> Additionally there's the problem of the market tolerating current prices. Like gasoline, even if the cost comes down it doesn't mean price goes down. Profit margins will increase if the market can sustain current prices.
I see a lot of competition in the space and the history of taxi services has been one of very low prices so I see the trend to continue in self driving.
Would you pay a little more to have the most flexible, sophisticated intelligence on Earth (human brain + driver assist) or would you want to save a few dollars and risk having some dumb piece of software strand you in the middle of the road somewhere?
We all use Google Maps or Apple Maps when driving and most of us have seen these systems do boneheaded things. Just imagine the dumb things a robotaxi could do.
So robotaxis are perhaps mainly attractive to the very low income parts of population, people who might buy an inferior product to save a dollar or two. People who buy store-brand ketchup instead of Heinz ketchup even though it doesn't taste as good.
It's hard for a normal person to be excited about this.