This research[1] estimates (15.1/23.8) 64% of the increases over pandemic period to remote work change, sounds like it could be a pretty big part of the story.
You can't tie bay area or NYC price increases to remote work.
You can tie LCOL price increases to them. But if that's the case, you would expect HCOL/central places to decline in price via the flip side of the same effect. Yet instead we see massive price increase in LCOL and smaller yet still big price increases in central/HCOL.
Obviously a many variable system, but stating that remote work should lead to a national 20% increase in prices is nonsensical
People want more space. They want more space in the country. They want more space in the city. A 2 bedroom urban apt doesn't accommodate 2 people WFHing, so roommates split up, adult children move out, established owners upsize, it's a general increase in demand everywhere, and evidently more than compensated for some people going urban-to-rural.
You can tie LCOL price increases to them. But if that's the case, you would expect HCOL/central places to decline in price via the flip side of the same effect. Yet instead we see massive price increase in LCOL and smaller yet still big price increases in central/HCOL.
Obviously a many variable system, but stating that remote work should lead to a national 20% increase in prices is nonsensical