[wisemanwillhear]

> A drawn out conflict favors Russia...

There's a strong argument that "the West" is supporting Ukraine to such an extent that Russia is at the disadvantage in the long game.

The Price of War - Can Russia Afford a Long Conflict? (Perun) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E

[orbifold]

I am unsure, a long term conflict would lead to both rising food and energy prices, both China and India still trade with Russia. It might further motivate technological independence from the west of those countries. Overall it could just accelerate the decline of the West and Europe in particular and a final shift of power to Asia.

[wisemanwillhear]

China and India cannot make up for the loss of the European markets, at least not for many years to come. The gas and oil pipelines can't be moved to pipe the other way.

Technological independence is easy to say and incredibly hard to do. Neither does independence means superiority or equality. Many forget that investment in technology takes time and comes at the expense of other things. China and Russia have budgeting constraints that will pull them away from investment in technology.