[bluGill]

Finance companies have a good idea of what a car will be worth after you are done with it. That is why they limit miles: they know the loss of value from miles and don't want to know lose money. Their goal is when the lease ends and you turn the car in the dealer pays the entire remaining balance and sells it as a used car. Dealers make more money from selling used cars than new (everyone knows what they pay for cars and won't allow any profit, but for used you don't know what they really paid for it).

When you trade in your car the dealer will give you an offer for your car. Depending on demand this may be higher or lower than what the lease company wants. When it is higher you win. When it is lower leasing would be better. Either way though, the dealer is pricing in a profit margin from selling your car, so if you don't trade in your car but sell it yourself you can get this profit margin in exchange for your time.

In the end it is about risk management. What will the car be worth in 3 years when you are ready for a new one? Nobody knows for sure 3 years in advance. Sometimes it will be worth a lot more than the lease company expects and so you win, sometimes it will be worth less and so you lose. If you don't trade your car in you probably will always win in monetary terms, though I'm not sure if it is worth the time.

[Thorrez]

How does sales tax fit in? If you buy the car, you have to pay sales tax on the whole thing right? I don't think that happens on a lease. And when you sell it, that buyer has to pay sales tax too right? And if that buyer is a dealer, then the next real customer has to pay sales tax again right? So sales tax reduces the liquidity and efficiency of selling cars, with no negative effect on leasing. This gets worse and worse the shorter the period of time. skolos owned 6 Teslas in several years, so this would be a big factor.

If you live in a state with no sales tax, then you avoid this problem.

[bluGill]

different in each state, but in general a lease is a sale for tax purposes. Check with a tax accountant in your state for details if you care.