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by pnathan 5349 days ago
Because most pensions are tied up in the market. So if the banking system deflates and resets, it drops the market value of pensions significantly.

The market essentially is a herd animal. Everything goes up or down together, in aggregate. Since wisdom in the financial market is to diversify, ie, hold in aggregate, a well-chosen portfolio generally does about as well as the market in the long term.

So if Grandma had 100K in her diversified portfolio of low-risk investments and the market exploded 50%, she'd have 50K, which represents a major loss of financial capabilities.

Whether it is better to drop such people in the cold while things reset or whether it is better to keep the cushion going, I leave to another media form, as such discussions tend to be too inflammatory online.

1 comments

So if Grandma had 100K in her diversified portfolio of low-risk investments and the market exploded 50%, she'd have 50K, which represents a major loss of financial capabilities.

This is most likely not the case. There are many ways the market can "explode 50%". One way is for each security to take a 50% haircut. Another is for the high risk securities to take a 100% haircut and the low risk to take a 0% haircut. Obviously real life lies somewhere in between.

However, it's not by any means obvious that the low risk, well diversified investors would take a particularly large haircut in a market crash. This is particularly true if they don't cash out immediately after the crash.