[aserdf]

the rule of thumb i've always seen is "consecutive quarters of negative economic growth" - in other words, negative change in GNP (have seen GDP used as well) after accounting for inflation.

since these indicators are always published after a time period has occurred and been tabulated, its possible we have crossed the threshold and are in a recession as we speak.

Q1 2022 is estimated at -1.5% right now, the final number will be released on 6/29. Meaning Q2 final data will be released sometime around the end of September, to make it an "official" recession (if Q2 ends up being negative).