[Uehreka]

My issue with takes like this is that Bitcoin is currently barely used by anyone (many people are holding, almost no one uses it as their primary medium of exchange), and yet it’s responsible for about 0.5% of the world’s power usage. If Bitcoin remains a niche hobby and doesn’t grow, then yeah, that’s not a big deal. But the people saying “It’s only 0.5%!” are also the people advocating for it to overthrow the world financial system and bring about a global decentralized digital monetary system.

And if that happens, if Bitcoin goes from being used by ~0% of the world population (for everyday exchange) to being the main way people transact goods and services, then we can expect the demand for miners to skyrocket, possibly leading to an energy draw that is a multiple of the world’s current non-blockchain usage.

If/when that will happen is unclear, and I’d agree that “this much by 2030” forecasts that just extrapolate the current trend will likely be inaccurate. But if we’re debating whether Bitcoin/crypto should be more used or less, I think it’s only fair to reckon with the effects that future crypto growth would have on its energy draw. We can’t argue about tomorrow’s revolution with yesterday’s numbers.

[ea550ff70a]

I don't disagree but at the end of the day how do you really plan to tame it if it's still a "niche" hobby in 10 year? Which I doubt a lot as Wall Street and other industries are starting to get quite involved in it now investment-wise. The practical approach from a government pov would be to regulate the hell out of mining businesses but nothing prevents me as a user to set up a mining rig at home and join a pool somewhere around the world. Look at China as an example. They still have 20% of their previous mining activity happening (after the ban) and they have the "best" surveillance system in the world. That's why I think fighting it is less productive than guiding it to use clean sources.

[Uehreka]

If it remains a niche hobby in 10 years then that means we’ve succeeded in preventing Bitcoin from becoming mainstream for another 10 years, which would be good. We might even make progress on clean energy sources in that time. It will still be wasting energy for little societal benefit, but that’s not the scenario folks are most worried about, we’re worried about what happens to the environment if it becomes more popular or becomes the dominant world currency (which is what many Bitcoin proponents are pushing for).

[ea550ff70a]

> still be wasting energy for little societal benefit

I don't think you are paying attention to developments in the Global South with it. Use of it is increasing at an insane pace in Latin America (where I'm from) and I don't see it stopping any time soon. Similar trend is happening in Africa. Does it make sense to use it if you live in a developed country? Probably not. You already have all the infrastructure and financial privilege you can have. Plus your organizations are the ones setting the rules for the rest of the world. Good for you. But not all people using it are gambling my friend. As of now, there are 2 countries that have adopted BTC as legal tender. I'm willing to bet that by the next (or around) the next halving, we are going to have more countries in that list, specially from the Global South.