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by jeffdavis
5346 days ago
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"It's both radically underspecified and overfitted." He used a perfect model (of a hypothetical world) which had exactly the right parameters, and then he calibrated it using exactly correct data. So I don't see how this could be underspecified or overfitted. Can you please explain? "The information-theoretic argument demonstrate that a model cannot exactly match the reality unless it's as complex as the reality." In this case he defined his model to be reality. |
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As far as overfitting goes, that applies when you have a parameterized general model and need to discover the correct parameters. You probably won't get the exact correct parameters; instead, you'll (hopefully) get parameters that approximate reality well.
More closely matching the training data can actually make it a worse approximation in the general case.