[phonon]

You're quite right.

"An estimate of future HPC needs should be both demand-based and reasonable. From an operational NWP perspective, a four-fold increase in model resolution in the next ten years (sufficient for convection-permitting global NWP and kilometer-scale regional NWP) requires on the order of 100 times the current operational computing capacity. Such an increase would imply NOAA needs a few exaflops of operational computing by 2031. Exascale computing systems are already being installed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (1.5 exa floating point operations per second (EF)) and Argonne Labs (1.0 EF) and it is likely that these national HPC laboratories will approach 100 EF by 2031. Because HPC resources are essential to achieving the outcomes discussed in this report, it is reasonable for NOAA to aspire to a few percent of the computing capacity of these other national labs at a minimum. Substantial investments are also needed in weather research computing. To achieve a 3:1 ratio of research to operational HPC, NOAA will need an additional 5 to 10 EF of weather research and development computing by 2031. Since research computing generally does not require high-availability HPC, it should cost substantially less than operational HPC and should be able to leverage a hybrid of outsourced, cloud and excess compute resources."[1]

[1]https://sab.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/PWR-Report_2...