|
|
|
|
|
by one-more-minute
1478 days ago
|
|
To expand on this, the switching argument is actually correct if you happen to know that the envelopes contain either {x, 2x} or {2x, 4x} dollars (where x = 50 or whatever), and you observe that A=100. These are effectively hidden assumptions of the argument. If you wanted to, you could explicitly model all possible values of the envelopes, and all possible observations of A – and you'd get the right answer again, including in the case above. You just can't define A in a path-dependent way, and then treat it as having the same value in all paths. |
|