[paulpauper]

Just when the Nasdaq posts one of its biggest weeks in a long time. This is why I tend to tune this stuff out. The time to have made this presentation was 6+ months ago. Now too late. Still long, have not sold anything. Added more to my position last week.

[eloff]

Bear rallies are fierce. I do not think we've hit bottom yet. Notably this opinion is shared by Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and Ray Dalio, among others.

[paulpauper]

bear markets tend to be much briefer than bull markets. Odds are if you try to time it you will end up selling too soon, buying back too late. How do you know if a bear market rally is the start of a new bull market? You don't, which is why I err on the side of not selling.

[eloff]

While this is true, bear markets usually last 12-18 months. We're just getting started.

I think it's fine (but not optimal) not to sell if you're playing the long game.

I'm all in cash and short positions right now. If my investing track record is anything to go by, that's a signal we've hit bottom. I'm betting otherwise, but what do I know.

[voisin]

> bear markets tend to be much briefer than bull markets.

Is this because governments are quick to drop rates and add QE but slow to do the opposite?

[onlyrealcuzzo]

They're not telling people to sell their Nasdaq positions.

They're telling their portfolio companies to shore up their balance sheets and extend their runways in case raising money at previous peak multiples continues to be difficult.