[peckrob]

I don't know why it isn't being mentioned.

I am not in the Bay Area myself, but about half of my friends there have relocated in the last couple years. A bunch to Washington or Oregon, some to Texas, one to Nashville, and a few others to places mostly in the northeast. All of them cited cost of living as the primary reason ... but all also mentioned full time remote work is what finally made it possible to move.

When you aren't chained to a physical location by your job, lots of things become possible.

[PragmaticPulp]

I actually know several people who used this as an opportunity to move into the Bay Area. The sudden drop in rents made it more attractive and they jumped.

They both work in industries where face to face communication is a competitive advantage. It’s easy to forget that not every job is naturally compatible with remote work like it is for those of us who type on computers all day.

[iancmceachern]

I'm in this boat. We moved apartments in SF during the pandemic and we now live in an amazing neighborhood, amazing building, for 40% less then we were paying for a below average apartment before.

It's not one or the other (moving in or out), it's about getting what you (the individual) wants, and being smart about timing and using world events to your advantage, not disadvantage.

Some people wanted to move away from SF, some wanted to move in. It was an opportunity for either.

[sheepybloke]

Where have you been seeing the rent drop in SF? I'm in the south bay and have been interested in moving to SF now that I'm going remote, since I want a bit more active nightlife. Now that I'm remote, I don't have to stay in south bay.

[acchow]

Largely SOMA and parts of the Mission and the Van Ness corridor. It's mainly areas which generally feel less like a neighborhood and more like a bustling city - mainly areas where renters are more OK with living in than homeowners would be willing to purchase in. A great example is the new Chorus building which opened in 2021 on Van Ness and Mission. It remained mostly empty throughout 2021 despite offering 10 weeks "free rent" with a 1 year lease. Stunningly gorgeous building, incredible amenities, but a subpar location - a condo here would be sold at a heavy discount because of the location, thus this is a luxury rental apartment instead. Across the street is the new Fifteen Fifty building, also with heavy "free 2 months rent" discount for a 1 year lease.

But even in the most desirable neighborhoods, rents are still down about 10-15% compared to pre-COVID

[iancmceachern]

I would revise this statement: "mainly areas where renters are more OK with living in than homeowners would be willing to purchase in"

To say: Areas that appear less like traditional neighborhoods with single family homes and more large modern condo buildings.

Our building, and many around ours are largely condos, not rentals. They don't look like traditional houses, but even in this more modern area with multi story buildings and retail all over the 1st floor it's not that it's a place that people don't want to buy homes, it's that there are no "homes" to buy, just condos.

[ido]

Is the word home not used to describe condos as well? I would have figured it’s a place with no houses to buy.

[acchow]

I use the word "home" to also include condos. Home does not mean "house".

Hayes Valley has tons of condos - homeowners want to buy here. Homeowners don't really want to buy at 6th and Mission and a Condo there would be heavily discounted per sqft.

Mission Bay also feels like a neighborhood - calm, some park space, all condos

[teebs]

Rents are definitely down - or at least they were 1.5 years ago when I last moved. Before the pandemic, 1 bedrooms were usually at least $3500 and often $4000+. When I looked last January, there were decent places between $2500 and $3000. I emailed some landlords saying "is there any chance you could go lower" and they offered me free rent for 1-3 months. I ended up with a pretty good deal on a large one bedroom in the Mission.

Rents have gone up since then from my understanding, but they're still below what they were several years ago. https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/san-francisco-ca

[soul_grafitti]

I have seen more 'For rent' signs in the last 3 or 4 months than I have in the last 15 years I've been living here. No idea how that translates to rent prices though.

[iancmceachern]

Many buildings around us have not since raised their rents. Still bargains to be had.

[urthor]

$3000 a month for a modern building, good one bedroom? Not a studio.

In SOMA/Mission? That's genuinely somewhat affordable for tech workers.

You'd get a terrible studio in Manhattan for that, plus all sorts of fees.

San Francisco's reputation is letting itself down. The house price bubble must only be for 3BR family homes with a yard in San Jose/Palo Alto.

[tshaddox]

I haven’t seen these supposed rent drops in SF or the Bay Area either. My lease in the peninsula is up next month and the rent is increasing about 8%, and that’s aligned with the prices I’m seeing elsewhere for comparable apartments.

[iancmceachern]

We've known multiple people whom their building was expecting they'd continue their lease at the higher rent while offering the lower rents to the general public for new tenants. I'd encourage you to find out what they're advertising rents at for new tenants and then hold them to that advertised rent.

[tshaddox]

The available units listed on the website are even slightly higher prices.

There’s another nearby building that’s extremely similar (same developer, I believe, and very similar floor plans, appliances, and amenities). Last summer comparable units in that building were priced the same as in my building, but are now a ludicrous 20-25% higher than my building.

[arcticbull]

Things are rising a bit now but if you jumped into a new place in like 2021, the discounts were pretty absurd.

[iancmceachern]

Check out SOMA, dogpatch, Potrero, south beach, etc.

Rents are still significantly less around here than before the pandemic.

[dominotw]

> sudden drop in rents

Curious, Why aren't properly prices droping to reflect the loss in population.

[picture_view]

It’s possible most of the 6.3% did not own property and we’re not in the market to buy property, so there was no change in that market.

[tekknik]

Even renters increase housing costs. Housing is finite and some people sit on the fence about buying or renting. An inability to find a rental unit sometimes tips them into the buying territory

[okaram]

And I'd assume house selling is fairly elastic in the short term. If property prices go down, people would decide to wait.

[lazide]

Speculators betting it will come roaring back afterwards, money still getting cheaper, folks with families that can’t move, inability to ‘just move’ if you own, all probably contributing.

Housing prices have been out of whack with fundamentals (cash flow) since at least ‘12-‘13.

[jethro_tell]

Here's another more bleak option. Just like in 2008 when corporations bought up huge swaths of the housing market for cash while no one could get a loan. (which is part of the current issue with not enough homes to buy)

They aren't betting the market will come roaring back, they are betting that they can corner the market and housing will be a subscription just like everything else they sell.

Rent seekers aren't going anywhere, and the cost is really immaterial to them for the most part. They don't need cashflow, they need a monopoly.

[fennecfoxen]

As usual, the “speculators” and “out of towners” and others are convenient scapegoats, lest we have to face the underlying supply and demand and barriers to development.

You want to have a monopoly on housing in a major city? I’d be hard pressed to point out an industry where that would be harder. You have literally millions of competitors.

[urthor]

Absolutely this.

The out of towners, who are mostly Blackrock, is just a fella with a spreadsheet tracking new dwelling approvals vs demand.

All the Bay Area has to do is approve new dwellings. The issue is the politicians are landlords with investment properties.

[seanmcdirmid]

San Francisco is already the second most densely populated city in the USA (the first being NYC). SF is actually already slightly more densely populated than Tokyo, which many like to tout as a mecha for de-regulated zoning.

[lazide]

That assumes they'll get takers on the areas though.

With remote work becoming more of the norm, what if the labor market doesn't move back?

They'll have a monopoly that few ever pay rent on, and they'll go broke (while the houses rot).

[heavyset_go]

Urban areas are desirable even outside of the availability of high paying jobs. There are neighborhoods in America's desirable cities filled with the adult children of wealthy people who pay their kids' insane rents while they pursue arts, fun and wait tables or bartend on the side for petty cash or to keep busy. That section of urban residents are not dependent on high paying jobs and will continue to seek out cities for the lifestyle aspect.

[jethro_tell]

Sure, It's not a sure thing forever and not all areas are going to be winners, but if you have a big enough budget, you can just buy houses everywhere for a long time and probably make decent rent for a while. Heh, if not, or when it ends, they can just dump it and or the company and walk away. It's not like they are doing it with their own money.

[marvin]

This is a spooky narrative, but the rent seekers can't be the majority. My understanding is that many Californian real estate markets are kept artificially tight due to various forms of NIMBYism.

If renters become the majority, it's suddenly no longer viable to limit new housing through regulation. Markets are nowhere near the fundamental limits of homes per square meter of the state that's good to live in.

[jethro_tell]

I don't think they are a majority and I think the main problem is lack of housing being built. But I do think that what housing is out there on the market faces stiff competition from companies not people. I'd assume there are a few people buying houses with cash but my guess is a lot of those stories you hear about people bidding 100k over ask and losing to a cash offer are mostly not people.

Theres a good number of companies that are open about increasing their housing portfolios. Even construction companies that built thousands of starter homes per year converting to rentals only.

These are long term changes, and not a quick cash grab at the bottom of the market.

[Schnitz]

Homeowners are a reliable political cohort, they tend to organize quickly as soon as any issues are on the agenda that might affect the value of their land and they will reliably push for whatever increases land values. They show up at city hall to make sure they are at least the loudest group on the issue. Homeowners are also diligent voters. You’ll need more than 50% of people to be renters to counter this, unless you can convince renters to organize as reliably and passionately as home owners.

[teebs]

Many of my friends who are tech workers who've worked at unicorns and tech giants for 5-10 years bought their first homes in SF during the pandemic. I would guess part of the drop in rents is a shift in demand from former renters to new homeowners. Also, there was a general increase in prices across all asset classes during the pandemic that continued to drive prices up. Finally, property prices have actually gone up less in SF than they have in the US as a whole, likely because of the general effect of people moving away - compare the change from January 2020 to today in this chart https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS vs this chart https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/

[chrisco255]

We are still in the early stages of the bubble deflating.

[seanmcdirmid]

The loss of population is directly caused by property prices, so if they were reduced, the loss would reduce or reverse and we simply would't be talking about population loss anymore (seriously).

[chiefalchemist]

Yes, but probably not all. WFH has enabled those not interested in SF property to go for their property elsewhere.

It's also difficult to imagine demand increasing again and prices falling or even staying level. The issue with SF, NYC, London, etc. is sqr miles are effectively fixed and zoning limits how many residential units you can add to the market.

[seanmcdirmid]

Maybe? Just as many people are probably staying in or moving to SF because they remote work to a job in the valley (eg San Jose) and not commute that much. They aren’t so price sensitive and value being in the big city. Until SF is undesirable, demand will keep, rents will remain high, and people are going to be priced out.

[jacobr1]

One of the items that seems to be missed in these kind of discussions is the increased demand for what otherwise would be called sprawl. You hear about people want to stay in a big city, or want to move to $tier3 city, but there is also a large cohort that wants to move to within 1.5 hours of bigcity, so I can maintain my network/family/work in the office once a month/etc ... This "sprawl" space is't a limited as the cities proper ... but with commutes was effectively limited. That limit is gone for large groups of remote/semi-remote workers.

[IfOnlyYouKnew]

I don't know the answer but I do know that all the attempted answers currently posted get the basics of economics spectacularly wrong.

My money is on either this census data or property value data simply being wrong. Housing is a famously inelastic market and a 6.4 % drop in demand should lead to a double-digit decrease in rents and values.

[refurb]

Limited housing stock and people upgrading from rental to a home goosed demand and prices.

I’d also assume people who bought a place are less likely to sell and leave than someone renting.

[RC_ITR]

If everyone who left was living in a 2 bedroom with a roommate and now that space is a one bedroom with a home office, then why would rents fall?

[sokoloff]

Presumably the willingness to pay a given amount from just one person’s income is lower than that of two people’s income. Add in additional temporary uncertainty in big parts of the tech market and I can see a lot of currently occupied units having a tenant not willing to renew as-was.

[IfOnlyYouKnew]

Is the former roommate paying twice as much? If not, their rent has fallen, for statistical purposes.

[Schnitz]

Condos did drop, single family homes did not.

[ghaff]

Even if you like San Francisco on balance, it's hard not to ask yourself if you like it so much that you're OK with paying for some of the most expensive housing in the country when you don't have a reason you have to be there.

[xvedejas]

This is not a strategy for everyone, but I definitely pay less in SF than I would in most cities because I know people willing to live with me long-term (and split rent) here. Generally it's easier in SF to find a roommate who is high-earning and willing to split an apartment or house compared to other cities, where similar people would just pay a little more to get their own place.

[wctawcta]

Splitting rent among roommates is not specific to San Francisco, it's common to cities with expensive housing. LA, Miami, NYC, San Diego, etc. all have high proportions of adults living with roommates (https://porch.com/advice/cities-whose-residents-likely-live-...).

Having roommates certainly helps save money, but it remains true that you and your roommates are paying for some of the most expensive housing in the country.

[mjmahone17]

You (and those like you) have informally recreated boarding houses. It’s a shame that Single Room Occupancy is basically illegal to build in any major US city: most cities require building “single family units” that must have their own bathroom(s), kitchen and bedroom(s).

It would be nice if people who are OK sharing common spaces were able to have housing built specifically with them in mind.

[smsm42]

I can probably get why it was banned (if abused, it can be horrible) but it is extremely common way of living, especially for young people without families in expensive places - so one would think the government would stop pretending it's not happening at some point...

[elif]

in our city, my partner and I bought a house entirely for 5.5 years of what we were paying in rent. Now just 2 of our rent payments cover annual tax and insurance.

any locally optimized strategy within the overall context of renting is still a failing proposition imo.

[themitigating]

For cities in general there's much more to do compared to low density areas. Restaurants, entertainment, other people. All of this within a decent traveling distance.

[DragonStrength]

Sure, but most who leave SF will choose a smaller metro area, not a rural area. What I have found in my time in the Bay Area is a general ignorance of how many smaller metro areas have developed more vibrant urban centers over the past 10 years. The people from these cities who went home for the first time in a decade are finding surprisingly livable metros waiting for them, closer to aging family.

[ihumanable]

I think one thing that keeps me in the Bay Area is economic opportunity, although it remains to be seen how larger macro-economic forces will effect this.

For the last decade though, if you write code in the Bay Area, there is just this massive backstop of companies looking to hire. I've lived here since 2011 and worked for all of 3 startups that entire time, so this isn't so much about job hopping. Instead, because of all the competition for talent in the area you get to enjoy a degree of job security, high pay, and benefits that are pretty nice. It is also a major relief to know that if your company does have to let you go for whatever reason or you just get sick of the work you are doing and want to quit, there are a ton of other places hiring.

With remote work I imagine being physically close to the Bay Area is less of a requirement, but it seems like there is some amount of drive to get people back into offices, so we will see how long that remains viable.

This is really the main reason I stay in the Bay Area, I moved out to the Greater East Bay a few years back and was able to find a nice house in a nice enough area for a reasonable price.

Having easy access to so many employers provides a peace of mind and an implicit pile of leverage that's pretty great.

[ghaff]

A lot of smaller cities have developed gentrified cores. Mind you, these cores can be pretty small. You may have a relative handful of restaurants and bars you like and they may lack some of the cultural amenities of a larger city. But I know a couple who just sold their presumably very appreciated house in a major metro and moved somewhere smaller.

[inferiorhuman]

I've definitely thought about finally leaving the Bay Area, previously I'd written off a lot of places because I want to be close to the coast and I love the relatively mild weather. More recently I ended up talking with a park ranger about life out here (he's from Truckee). He was real attracted to the Oregon coast but aghast at the white supremacy issues that are still ripe up there. There's always a catch.

Now? Politics and infrastructure put me off of huge chunks of the country (especially Texas and Florida). I don't really care if Austin is a vibrant metro area when the state government is trying to ensure women have subhuman status at most even if they've got to gut our judicial system to do it. Small town Texas? Absolutely fucking not, doubly so if I actually wanted to raise a family. Then again the Bay Area is my home.

[DragonStrength]

Yes, you’re certainly wrestling with a different circumstance than many others, if not most, if you’re from the area.

For someone from a place most people from the Bay Area would never deign to visit, I’m more than happy to go back and do the hard work to make it better. Work politicians and voters in California are incapable and unwilling to do.

[themitigating]

What does being "woke" have to do with this situation?

[ghaff]

Sure. Cities lend themselves to different sorts of activities and have different pros and cons than do rural areas. Personally I get all the city stuff I want in short visits. I can see a play in a large city that is an hour drive away without living there.

[themitigating]

That's fine but the parent implied it was objectively worse than living elsewhere

[ghaff]

I think the parent was me :-) I actually like SF but some of the most expensive housing in the country is a high bar if you don't either have enough money that it's a non-issue or have to live there for employment or other reasons. There are many cities with solid city activities that aren't SF.

[themitigating]

I'm aware there are options. It's subjective

[legerdemain]

Like it or not, SF has the most vibrant tech community than anywhere else.

I live an hour away, and I make the painful, tedious drive up in rush-hour traffic at least once a week to meet up with some group or another in person. The alternative is the dreary, sleep-inducing vendor teleconferences that double as "meetups" on the Peninsula.

I'm strongly considering ditching the Peninsula and moving to SF for better networking and more diverse hangouts and career opportunities.

[ghaff]

This is both the good and bad of living in area like the Bay. I'd find the idea of going in an evening a week with a tedious drive to do work-related stuff tedious at best.

[legerdemain]

The alternative is moving to the city, which is what I am strongly considering.

[thatfrenchguy]

Not a lot of places in the USA where you can take transit, walk around and be close to the beach and the mountains while having a garden and some space :)

[0000011111]

It sounds like you are saying that if you move from SF to another city cost of living expenses will drop dramatically.

[alanh]

Yes, this is famously true, with SF's cost of living (especially but not only housing) being some of the very highest in the nation. Getting out of California helps even more.

[ghaff]

Well they can. If I move to another popular place like Manhattan they probably won't go down much. But it's reasonable to ask, if you don't have a work-related reason to live in a place, whether it's good value based on your priorities. The answer may be "Yes!" for SF for some people. But it may also be "No."

[nradov]

I live in the south Bay Area. The local public school district has been steadily losing enrollment due to the high cost of living. The district administrator I talked with said that based on student records transfer requests, some families have moved further east and south into the sprawling exurbs, and many others moved to Texas.

[DragonStrength]

I entered 2020 thinking I'd settle in the Bay Area, but stats like these accelerating over the past couple year make me feel fortunate I sat it out.

[godot]

I agree with you and GP; I'm just pointing out that the article does mention it as a primary reason:

> Experts have said the Bay Area’s high housing costs and remote work policies, particularly for the tech industry, fueled out-migration during the pandemic, as residents sought cheaper homes and more space. Almost all California coastal cities lost population, while the more affordable Central Valley and Inland Empire saw gains.

My observation from the discussion here is that there are a lot of people here still raving about city life (especially as pandemic tapers down) and how people are moving back in, etc. I think it's suffice to say everyone has a different living preference, and remote work enabled people who otherwise didn't want to live here, to move away, which in turn also opened up some spaces for people who wanted to live here but found it too expensive, to move in. The real question is probably how the numbers work out. Are there a lot more people who wanted to move away and are doing so now? If so, home prices and rents would drop. If the opposite is true or the numbers are about even, then prices wouldn't drop or would drop less.

[gamechangr]

I second this

My friends seem to be moving to Washington, Florida, and other parts of California (away from main cities)

[toomuchtodo]

I see far more California vehicle tags in Central Florida than I would've expected.

[jdhn]

When you look in the cars, are they older people? Where I live (western Florida), it's generally older people and not the demographic that you'd expect to find on this site.

[CSMastermind]

I just moved NYC to Florida and I've been shocked how many other people have done the same. Florida is doing a relatively good job of attracting high end tech talent as far as I can tell. Texas is the other place I hear mentioned a lot.

[urthor]

The hypotheses I'm seeing are interesting.

On one hand, lots of tech workers with kids move there for big yards and good weather.

On the other hand, the universities are not up to scratch. And for college graduates and the young, moving to Florida isn't going to provide you with much if any career safety.

I'm very interested in the future of Florida in a few years. It can go either way.

[ido]

Assuming you’re moving long-term, aren’t you worried climate change is going to make Florida (especially coastal southern Florida) a lot less attractive?

[wellthatsawrap1]

Yes climate change. It's going to be bad. Please don't move to Florida

[lotsofpulp]

That is probably more a function of population. I regularly see Florida plates in Washington.

[davio]

I live in Missouri and people who have lived on my street for decades have Florida plates. They must have property there and claim it as residency for tax purposes

[legerdemain]

A ton of license plates with oranges on them here in the Bay Area, too.

[bamboozled]

Funny thing is, I recently went back to a few cities which have started to recover and the vibe was so fun I thought how much fun it would be live in one again. So much energy, good shops restaurants and amenities ! People didn’t throw cities away, they threw away cities in lockdown. I think a lot of people will rediscover city life and ultimately end up back there for some reason or another.

Cities grew organically for different reasons, we kept them because they serve a purpose. Before the pandemic it wast like we all hated living in cities.

[FollowingTheDao]

This is so sad to me. The fracturing of the community because of capitalism. All these people that are moving away from their friends they are shortsighted. When they really need people no one’s going to be around them. Sad.

[wellthatsawrap1]

People are moving because of gross mismanagement by democrats.

[urthor]

Keep in mind that the politicians in charge of this... are extremely local.

They are Democrats, but not the kind you'd think. It's a very small world in local politics.

[FollowingTheDao]

Could be, what's your point? You think the Democrats are anti-capitalists?