[johndfsgdgdfg]

The problem is we've set-up asymmetric incentive structure. Say, there are some uncertainties regarding the risk and aftermath of COVID. If you genuinely underestimate the risk, then you are a pro-grandma killer and one of the worst human beings in the world. But if you overplay the risk, then you are an amazing human being whose only flaw is caring too much about human lives. Unfortunately this becomes another 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf' story and also causes a lot of harm in the long run.

[smt88]

> If you genuinely underestimate the risk, then you are a pro-grandma killer and one of the worst human beings in the world.

I totally disagree with this. When omicron started spreading, a lot of scientists jumped to the conclusion that it was less lethal than previous variants. They were happy to share positive-sounding news, regardless of whether they turned out to be wrong. At the beginning, the evidence (from South Africa) was far from conclusive.

[native_samples]

Huh, that's the opposite of how I remember it. Where on earth did you see that?

I couldn't see my family for Christmas this year because they freaked out over Omicron and insisted that me and my girlfriend would have to quarantine for 10 days before being able to visit them. This was driven entirely by "scientists" jumping to conclusions that Omicron would be as deadly as Delta but much more infectious and demanding more lockdowns, quarantines etc. They had no scientific basis for this doom-mongering, which appeared to be driven purely by some strange ideological desire for more restrictions.

I told family at the time - this is crazy. All the evidence about Omicron says it's a mild cold. There is no evidence pointing to any other conclusion. The people who discovered it in South Africa are communicating clearly that there's no crisis. Public health scientists are lying, again, because they're claiming there's no data when I was reading about that supposedly non-existent data in the press just yesterday and so you shouldn't listen.

Well, they listened to the "scientists" and not me. For a few weeks, at least. February comes around, nothing about the virus has changed but they suddenly realize that it causes a mild cold and nobody cares. The Queen gets it aged 95 and it's on the front pages for about half a day. She doesn't even stop working. Then they want us to visit so we can do the celebrations we didn't do at Christmas.

So the scores are:

    South African doctors: 1
    native_samples: 1
    Public health: -a million, again.

The people from South Africa turned out to be completely correct.