[prmoustache]

> So how long does the microchip shortage continue?

In my humble opinion, there is no shortage. There is however a huge priorization and a control of the production to elevate the prices.

I guess some people in far east asia figured out they have power the same way as the founders of OPEP did in the 70's. Look at all the microchips based shit you can buy on aliexpress. Doesn't seem they are affected much by shortage.

[janekm]

From what I've seen Chinese manufacturers and component distributors built up big stocks when the tariffs/sanctions against China were announced a few years ago. Then when the recent events affected supply chains, they were sitting on decent stocks of popular chips and were able to sell them at 10x original price.

Since then the industry has been in a cycle of: - Manufacturer finishes a batch of popular chip - Everybody who uses that chip tries to buy next 3-5 year demand - Popular chip is out of stock again

[VLM]

Don't forget scalpers. The market on Amazon is clearing for Pi 2 W Zero boards at a mere 2600% profit over retail price (higher prices are not selling), so people whom actually want to build something with a Pi are competing with people whom compare a 29% APR credit card vs 2600% per unit profit margin and buy everything they can get for resale.

Its classic hyperinflation market. Too much money chasing too little product. The only way to crack the hyperinflation would be to boost interest rates on credit cards over 2600% making speculation unprofitable or for the endusers to abandon the marketplace and let the price crash or boost the manufacturers production until they flood the market down. The CC interest rate thing would not sell well in an election year LOL. The manufacturers cannot outproduce the demands of the entire financial industry money printing press. The only option is market abandonment.

[hpkuarg]

> The CC interest rate thing would not sell well in an election year LOL

Nominally, the Federal Reserve is politically independent...

[bluGill]

Manufactures should be aware of this. Selling to real customers as opposed to scalpers is better in the long run because when those scalpers realize the game is up they will flood the market. However us little guys who need just one, or maybe a few hundred are not big enough for the manufactures to talk to individually even though we are significant overall. The manufactures don't really have a way to get us supply that scalpers cannot get into. Big companies generally can get supply if it exists. That is a big if though, as there are real supply problems as well.