[estro0182]

Given that energy prices, which are a partial driver of inflation, are high and will certainly remain high through the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023 due to demand from cold weather and China coming back “online”, I really don’t see how the 2022/2023 predictions make sense. They may be solely focusing on how supply chain disruptions will cease soon, but that also implies increases in energy demand which will offset some of those supply improvements.

[WheelsAtLarge]

The prediction is not that prices will fall. The average prices will stay high. They just won't go up as fast. So oil can stay at $100+ but it won't be rising as fast as it has in the past year. Prices rise as supply tightens but as supply stops tightening the price rise will slow. Also the fed is tightening the money supply so even if the prices are trending up there won't be as much money to chase the goods. In a sense the prediction says that the price shocks to the economy are slowing. I hope so because I don't want to deal with any more surprises.