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by SamBam 1485 days ago
If anyone could perfectly predict what was going to happen in the next state then those with this ability would only ever make money and never lose it. Yet this can't happen. In the real world there are sniper bots and all sorts of other things that another agent could do in parallel with your own script, which would lead the outcome to be uncertain.
3 comments

The main issue is constructing a valid transaction.

An exploiter conducting a big heist and disappearing never has to prove that they can't do it again, because they're rich immediately.

> Yet this can't happen.

You don't even need to perfectly predict the next state to make risk-free attempts; you merely need to submit your transactions using flashbots (which operates a gateway directly to the miners). You pay a portion of your profit to the miners as an incentive to include your transaction, and if your transaction fails for any reason it fails atomically and is not included in the block, meaning you have paid no gas and your attempt is thus risk-free. One caveat is that this only works if the transactions can be assembled into a bundle within the same block.

> would only ever make money and never lose it.

They'd at least risk losing the transaction fees...