[lumost]

OP may have speculated on outlook for the next decade, it’s possible that interest rates rise and inflation remains. This would be the case if inflation is not a domestic phenomena land is instead driven by war, china, and tariffs.

[noduerme]

You forget very expensive crop failures caused by environmental degradation and global warming, too. India just went from promising wheat to fill the supply gap left by Ukraine to banning the export of wheat within the span of a month. Queensland's drought and now flooding is a separate disaster. It's not just too much money chasing too few microchips or cars because of logistical issues or covid shutdowns; it's too much money chasing shortages of highly inelastic basic requirements for survival, like bread and milk. This is the sort of thing that contracting the money supply can't fix, because it's not excess consumption that can be discouraged away. Considering inflation in the UK just hit 9%, EU 7.8%, even Japan going from deflation to 2.5% inflation, it seems probable this is a long haul global problem. It's a really lousy environment when the dollar is inflating and strengthening against other currencies at the same time. Higher interest rates will tamp down spending on discretionary goods, but much less so the inelastic ones we're seeing shortages of; nor will they drive investment to create more of what can be created.