[nuclearnice3]

I don't follow your equation.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_monthly_return

Yours is unweighted, but return of the S&P in Dec 2021 4.36% The dividend yield about 1.37% The price ~4600.

4.36/1.37 - 4600 indeed very less than zero.

The relationship means nothing to me.

I must be getting this all wrong.

[HFguy]

I've been at top HFs the last 15 years, I do this for a living, and I have no idea what the guy is talking about either.

[SnowHill9902]

It’s the sum over all periods into the future.

[nuclearnice3]

How do we get the returns or dividend yields for future periods?