[didericis]

They seem to have lost their initial short term objectives, and the fog of war is real/I can’t tell how good or bad they’re currently doing, but I think regardless of their competency or resolve it’s foolish to underestimate a China-Russia coalition’s resiliency long term, if only due to their much more totalitarian hold over their populace. The lack of easy avenues for a change in leadership even if extremely disastrous for most Russians is a significant difference.

That said, I think there are rumblings of regime change in China. The housing market crash and extreme lockdowns seem to have a lot of people upset.

Seems like we’re living through interesting times, unfortunately… I’m probably delusional, but I’m somewhat optimistic that people will be better off once the dust settles. Depends on how rough it gets and whether we can manage a smooth landing.

[YZF]

There's definitely fog of war but the front lines have barely moved despite Russia bringing all its might to bear. We saw the images of those demolished Russian forces at that ill fated river crossing. We keep seeing evidence of Russia suffering continuous losses.

What we don't see much of is the Ukrainian side's losses. Their morale and will seem extremely high though.

The Ukrainians have a numerical advantage over the mobilized Russian army. They have an advantage as a defender and they have a double advantage because they are defending their families and homes. The Russians don't know what they're fighting for and why they're even there.

The Ukrainians are backed by the west (though maybe not enough) with potential access to weaponry that can tip the balance. They appear to generally be applying better tactics vs. the Russians brute force and level everything to the ground approach. So really the only thing stopping them from pushing the Russians out right now is access to more and better weapons (which might be improving in the coming weeks with the new US aid package).

Re: China I think they're looking at this and recalculating. Taiwan is probably not happening. Their "strategic" partner that's supposed to be a super power turned out to be full of hot air. Western weapon superiority is proven again. They want to win economically, they don't like instability. And sure, just like anywhere else, totalitarian regimes don't last for ever.

Another factor is that other countries are looking at this and also reaching the conclusion that the western hegemony that appears to maybe be not doing so great actually is still doing pretty well.

All that said, it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. This is just so stupid.

[didericis]

Agree 1000% about the stupid part, the pain being caused right now is so tragic and unnecessary. And I hope you’re right about the rest/think you probably are, but its important not to get too arrogant about our position given the stakes.