| Hah, good catch. Kind of can't believe he's still doing that after the last time [0] 0: The tweet: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241551327743770624 The, ah, assertion: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241553311024603140 > I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems. The prediction: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1252584289486565377 which is a link to https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/ , which states, on April 4 2020: > Japan will face a national health crisis within a month. Of course, he then edited it with a framing in which he claims: > The core result was correct. > ... > This prediction was correct. So not only was he wrong, he refuses to acknowledge or understand how and why he was wrong. And continues to tweet hashes as though we should give anything he says any merit whatsoever. |
Further, it's apparently a very common thing in cybersecurity circles (though I've worked in cybersecurity for a decade and don't recognize the idiom, but my experience is more in software dev than research), so I don't really get why he'd stop even if he got a prediction wrong.