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by MacsHeadroom 1497 days ago
1. DON'T save. DON'T sell equity (ie. Don't raise capital). DO take on as much debt as feasible. DO use said debt to employ the inevitable cheap labor and capital goods to run profitable ventures.

2. Yes, I was laid off from a start-up then joined as one of the first at an already profitable pre-seed start-up that would raise $20M with <5% dilution during the worst of the recession. Eventually exited very successfully. Labor was cheap and pre-PMF competitors dropped like flies.

3. Mistake #1: I saved instead of doing the smart thing and taking on massive debt. My savings and small debts inflated away over the next decade. My colleagues who opted for large debts had their large debts inflated away and faired much better than I did in the end.

Mistake #2: After the highly successful exit I joined a start-up with the hot "growth before revenue" strategy. The only thing that grew faster than our user base was the dilution of our equity. Investors won while we gave up years of work for a slice of the pie that got disgustingly small for the risk we took as founders.

To sum it all up: Profit before growth. Leverage the things the recession makes cheap due to other people/businesses no longer being able to afford them (e.g. talent). Fund profitable new business with debt. If you sell equity, only do it after proving that you can do it with debt and exhausting the option for debt. Despite VC funds drying up, you'll be the belle of the ball if you've proven you have created a reliable money printer.

Caveat: If you can't make a reliable money printer, find someone who has and join them.

1 comments

The thing that causes the recession is that debt has become more expensive. It is counter intuitive to say that now it is the time to take up debt.
It is counterintuitive, which is why it was a learning for me.

The reason to take on debt in a recession is simple; others aren't doing it because it's expensive.

This mass obstension causes investments to appear to lose value, evidenced by dropping market prices.

In reality the investments are just as valuable as before. Only their "marginal" value has dropped. In fact, you may now have access to even MORE valuable investments and opportunities that were out of reach pre-recession.

For example, high performing developers laid off from their $200k/yr positions, now competing with each other for your open $80k/yr position.

Or the opportunity to cannibalize the customers of competitors failing to raise capital or trim their fat quickly enough.

Or foreclosed homes that will double in value as soon as banks find a new way to make lending cheap again.

The list goes on and on.