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by dane-pgp
1493 days ago
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I take your point that NATO needs Turkey more than vice versa, especially as it is now hard to imagine Russia deciding to invade Turkey. On a 20 year time scale, though, I don't think that gas and oil will see high demand from NATO members. Which countries' oil supply do you think would no longer reach them if Turkey refused to allow transit? For comparison, here[0] are the oil details for Georgia, including the statistics: "Georgia [ranks] 80th in the world and accounting for about 0.0% of the world's total oil reserves". I agree that it would be very costly from a geopolitics perspective for the West to have Turkey as an adversary rather than an ostensible ally, so I suppose my (non-serious) "two NATOs" plan should have involved both NATOs continuing to exist indefinitely. Still, I don't think Turkey can demand an unlimited price from NATO, and Erdogan shouldn't try to over-play his position. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/oil/georgia-oil/ |
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- Current oil and gas from the Caspian Sea Basin, from the Azeris and Iranians[0]
- Future oil and gas from the Caspian (Azeris, Khazaks) [1] [3]
- Future gas from Qatar. The project was frozen due to Syria's Russian and Iranian gas pipeline dalliances. The cynic in me says it's the reason for the Syrian war [2]
> For comparison, here are the oil details for Georgia
Georgia is indeed not important as a producer - depending on whether you count Abkhazia as still in Georgia, or in Russia as there were new discoveries of oil in Ukraine [4].
(note the date of the discovery, note the date of when troubles started in Ukraine... again, paranoid cynic in me says there's a smell to this Burisma thing).
But it IS very important as the location for the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline [5].
> Still, I don't think Turkey can demand an unlimited price from NATO, and Erdogan shouldn't try to over-play his position.
I believe he shouldn't. But I believe he will.
There's been very recent vocal public discussion in his party about Greece and the danger of American bases there (i.e. they're not against Russia, so against whom are they?) and the US being a long-term trustworthy partner (see coup attempt years ago, for which it was Russia who warned Erdogan of the danger).
If Russia manages their "all-in" gamble (win in Ukraine, win at the economic/monetary game), and China extends the Belt and Road, Turks (not just Erdogan) won't hesitate to turn against NATO, attack, and at a minimum get the whole of Cyprus, if not parts of Thrace.
I believe they can allow themselves that, because as much as the Gulf is the economic brain of the elite of the Muslim world, Istambul and Ankara are the heart and center of the vascular system for middle-and low classes. They are litterally the centerpoint of logistics for that system (i.e. Turkish airlines).
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References
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_pipeline
[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=12911
[1'] https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-oil-and-gas-kaza...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Turkey_pipeline
[2'] http://kurultay.fr/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/maxresdef...
[3] https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-oil-and-gas-kaza...
[4] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Ukraine-Unexpected-Oil...
[4'] https://budsoffshoreenergy.com/2022/03/08/most-of-ukraines-b...
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi%E2%80%93C...