[JaimeThompson]

>I also don't get the Musk hate.

The man sent an email saying that Raptor 2 engine development might bankrupt SpaceX about 1/2 a year ago but is now spending lots of money on Twitter for reasons that make little sense.

If his dream truly is Mars then funding SpaceX is a much better use of his funds and time.

[robonerd]

It's weird to me that so many Musk critics (not all mind, not myself..) seem so confident in the Raptor 2 / Starship program, seemingly for little reason other than 'believe the opposite of everything Elon says'

The way I see it, that project is in trouble. The last time it flew it caught fire after landing, and the time before that it blew up. I know rockets in development blowing up is nothing new for SpaceX or the industry generally, but even so things don't look so rosey to me. In one of the tests the engine was plainly seen to be burning its copper lining, which is exactly the problem with engine cycles using oxygen-rich mixtures, and this precise difficulty is why nobody has ever succeeded in making an engine like Raptor 2 before. This isn't like Merlins, there was nothing particularly novel about the Merlin engines. Gas generator cycle burning LOX / RP-1 is 1950s technology. Raptor is a new kind of engine and success is by no means a foregone conclusion; it may fail no matter how much money is thrown at it. Extant material and/or manufacturing technology may not be sufficient for this sort of engine.

As for bankrupting SpaceX; if the Raptor engines don't work, then Starship doesn't work. And if Starship doesn't work, then Starlink probably makes no economic sense (even with Starship working, it seems questionable to me.) If they can't make any of that work, they're stuck doing satellite launches on Falcon 9. Is that enough to keep SpaceX in business? I think they've already been using Starlink to buy launches from themselves to cook their books, so if Starlink is on the precipice of failure, I think the whole enterprise is at risk.

As for Elon Musk still having a lot of money, that's technically not SpaceX's money and SpaceX could go bankrupt without Elon Musk ever being at risk of bankruptcy. And would he even continue to fund SpaceX if Raptor fails?

> If his dream truly is Mars

I don't believe it is (I know he claims it, I just don't believe him. I think the whole business is about Defense contracts, particularly for massive constellations.) But assuming for the sake of argument that Mars is earnestly his plan: for that to make any sense at all he'd need a rocket like Starship. And if the Raptor 2 can't be made to work properly, then his Mars plan is kaput anyway. Why would he bail out the company if his idea for the company is a technical failure?

[rnk]

Yes, Falcon 9 and Starlink are each separately enough to keep space x in business. One easy observation is that company are trying to support themselves with only sat internet. Also companies are trying to support themselves by "only" being a rocket launch for hire. SpaceX is beating all of those. So yeah, they have a business.

[robonerd]

Maybe SpaceX could survive as a satellite launch company using Falcon 9, but if we accept the premise of Elon Musk funding this company to go to Mars, would he continue to provide that funding if plans for the Mars missions go up in smoke?

As for Starlink's commercial viability, it seems reasonable enough if they can launch hundreds of satellites at once with a cheap fully-reusable rocket. Right now they can't do that, they can only use a semi-reusable rocket that launches tens of satellites at a time. So far they've used this to launch 2000+ satellites, which is impressive, but is that enough? I don't think so, because they've received approval for 12,000 and sought approval for 30,000. What they've launched thusfar with Falcon 9 seems to only be a small fraction of what they want. The constellation isn't a one-time expense either; it requires constant upkeep because these satellites are low and only last a few years.

I think they've been making do with what they have, knowing that Starship will be necessary to make the business work in the full scale / long term.

> Also companies are trying to support themselves by "only" being a rocket launch for hire.

Well that's the other thing isn't it? SpaceX is very invested in designing rockets, but doesn't seem to give a shit about colony technology. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Elon Musk constantly talks about going to Mars, but isn't interested in actually developing a Mars colony. Instead he'll leave that part to other groups, and focus on making the spaceship that will get them there. In other words, he's building a bridge to nowhere and is counting on somebody else building the destination required for his bridge to make sense. For a man who supposedly endeavors for Mars, this seems absurd. Instead of buying twitter, he could be throwing tens of billions of dollars at colony R&D. But he isn't.

I don't think Starship is for going to Mars. I think it's for rapidly launching and replenishing large constellations of satellites. Probably for military purposes.