[borism]

Newer thin-film solar panels represent a jump in paradigm

isn't this what Allen said in his critique? scientific achievement doesn't just grow exponentially - there are those "jumps in paradigm" that move us forward, but they're relatively rare and unpredictable.

[Troll_Whisperer]

As Kurzweil pointed out, Allen hadn't even read his book. In it Kurzweil provides copious volumes of data to support his claim that the overall trend is still exponential. As one paradigm starts to run out of steam, there is greater and greater research pressure to find the next. Much as vacuum tubes improved exponentially until nearing their limit upon which transistors and then later ICs took over, the same has been happening with energy.

For the past 400 years human energy consumption per person has been growing at a relatively smooth exponential curve, despite changes from wood-burning to coal to whale oil to petroleum. Even a cursory unbiased study on the subject will show that. Interestingly, for nearly the entire time, malthusian doomsday prophets have enjoyed more popularity than more rigorous analysts.