[shrimpx]

There’s a contradiction in your analysis: you have no idea what will happen, yet make decisions guided by empirical analysis. You’re literally making a bet that the future is likely to behave in patterns according to the empirical analysis. How is that not a form of timing?

I think the confusion arises when we split hairs, that timing is predicting explicit events, or on a short time scale. But I want to zoom out: making decisions based on large scale patterns and trends, including “the s&p always goes up over a long time”, or “the future tends to behave like the past”, (things that are absolutely not guaranteed to happen, and require belief and betting), is a form of timing.