[rodgerd]

> What is Putin's play?

He's been very clear: before the second Ukraine invasion he criticised Lenin for allowing the SSRs to exist and for accepting the loss of Imperial Russia by e.g. accepting Finnish independence. His ambition is to restore Russia to (at least) its pre World War I borders, which would involve the obliteration of nations such as Ukraine and Finland.

Up until now he has zero push back on the butcheries in Chechnya, little pushback on previous atrocities in Ukraine or Syria or shooting down civilian airliners, and he no doubt expected the same this time around.