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I think it's probably accepted that NATO indicated to Ukraine very early on that the chances of it joining were a distant dream. Not withstanding complications relating to deep cultural and historical connections between Russia and Ukraine there were basic issues of governance, market regulation, military preparedness, etc. It's not a case of "we'd like to join NATO!" - "Sure, come on in!". However, what NATO couldn't do was publicly say "No, you cannot join, ever". So instead they were given rather weak pleasantries by NATO as to their possible joining at some future point, same for Georgia and other states. Why couldn't NATO publicly say "No!", particularly in the many years of Russia demanding we do so? Well, in my admittedly weakly understood opinion NATO are all "typically" open free liberal democracies who believe in self-determination by their peoples. Telling a nation they cannot possibly join us because a third party nation says we cannot allow it sends a somewhat mixed message. Perhaps more importantly it would've signalled to Russia early on "sure, this is your territory - do what you wish, we won't interfere". Is that a message we want to be sending? Buffer states only remain buffer states while all sides are sure the others will retaliate if they invade - Article 5 is the ultimate guarantor of that. What's more I very much doubt NATO saying "No!" would've stopped Ukraine from asking, again and again. Even when it became clear that any chance had vanished following the annexation of Crimea they still asked over and over. Even when the Donbass flared into open combat assisted by Russian forces. Even when Russia had rolled tanks into the territory they continued to ask. And it seems to me at least their mere "asking" to join, regardless of what NATO may have privately said (and doubtless Russia were made aware) was the issue for Putin. NATO is an incredibly powerful military force - I don't think everyone fully understands just how powerful it is. If it wanted to take on the worlds autocrats, dictators, malign regimes, etc. it could - quite easily - without resorting to any nuclear sabre rattling. That it doesn't, that it has with minor exception - typically related to easing command and control of operations rather than "military might" of its assigned forces - remained a defensive alliance speaks volumes as to its intentions. In fact the worst thing to come out of this war is how it is showing "might makes right" in the worst possible manner. To those nations who wish to subjugate their neighbours (or their own people) despite an overwhelming majority of the world saying "Don't! Stop!" - just get yourself some nuclear weapons and NATO, the West, the World won't/can't do much to militarily stop you. That's setting a pretty awful precedent. |