[ericmay]

The best way to think of "priced in" when you are reading something that someone else wrote is to replace those two words with "I don't know". Nothing is priced in. Everything is priced in. When someone thinks of an idea, by virtue of sharing that idea it's deemed to be "priced in".

[totoglazer]

No, that’s kind of nonsense.

[ericmay]

It’s really not. “It’s priced in” is just religion at this point and it’s really just surface level useless banter. The market is random and softly guided by macroeconomic forces. Interest rates go up and then the share price of Google goes up? Priced in. They go down and the share price goes up? Priced in. Company has a bad quarterly? Already pride in by the nefarious “market”. Etc. Recognizing things like that is a good first step toward having a coherent investment thesis.

[JumpCrisscross]

> rates go up and then the share price of Google goes up? Priced in.

Google is profitable and trading at a below-market multiple. It's a poor rates play.

Rates directly influence broad-market multiples, which Google will track, but "market goes down and Google goes up...priced in" isn't an intelligent thing to say.

[ericmay]

> Rates directly influence broad-market multiples, which Google will track, but "market goes down and Google goes up...priced in" isn't an intelligent thing to say.

Right.. which is why people should ignore "priced in" comments and instead read them as "I don't know what I'm talking about whatsoever".

There's no such thing as "priced in" - it's a contradiction and only used by people who are religiously inclined to talk about events that are random and don't have an explanation. If someone says "oh that was priced in" that's an extremely clear signal that they do not know what they are talking about.

> Google is profitable and trading at a below-market multiple. It's a poor rates play.

Did you intentionally miss the point or were you genuinely confused about what the discussion was about? It's very clear that I was not providing any sort of analysis about Google and interest rates rising (or lowering) and was talking about how people just say any action is "priced in" once it occurs.

[aaaaaaaaata]

> Priced in

By the time you are talking about, it largely will be.

[solveit]

"Priced in" is not explanatory, it is predictive and the prediction is that you cannot consistently beat the market (where you are a generic smart person with no particular reason to have an edge, like most HN commenters).