[NAHWheatCracker]

This is precisely the issue from my perspective as well.

Most project managers I've worked with either have a desired estimate already in mind or they don't care about any of the extenuating circumstances.

On one hand, the desired estimate is often based on the knowledge that projects estimated to take more than a quarter aren't going to get a green light.

On the other hand, it's ridiculous how many projects blow through estimates when external dependencies are ignored, newly-hired engineers create a burden on the project, and de-scoped work turns out to be necessary.

Those project managers also pursue the same estimation agenda even after several projects turn out the same way.

[zo1]

And as someone asking developers for those estimates, I often see all sorts of equivalents that we complain managers have in the form of politics.

Devs over-engineer, add way too much padding for refactoring and cleaning out tech-debt than is necessary, devs engineer solutions with resume padding, devs like playing with cool tech or trying new tech instead of just using "the boring old thing", they over-engineer (saying this one twice), they get it wrong, devs over-compensate because they got burned previously, they over-compensate because they got negotiated down and then it went bad, they want to impress their peers or whoever they report to, they get bullied by end users that somehow get access to them, etc etc. Yes a lot of those are avoidable, but we don't live in an ideal world.

[redcalx]

> Those project managers also pursue the same estimation agenda even after several projects turn out the same way.

This is an aspect of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy.