[bfz]

Some more respectable commentators suggest the current environment is the start of a second tech bust, and although that seems sensational, it might be fair given current trends of shrinking credit, de-globalization, explosive inflation and rapidly collapsing discretionary spending seen at present.

A reasonable starting point might be where it was prior to Covid QE and rate reductions (-61%), add one company-specific shock due to missed growth expectations (-30%), maybe +20% for real growth experienced over Covid in the meantime, and that already leaves us with $6bn, before accounting for the effect of the fed beginning to unwind their balance sheet (which starts in June, initially at around 1% per month)

Incrementally buying at $18-$25 would definitely feel tempting in that scenario, assuming the fed delivered its claimed targets, and only with the understanding the IPO price should not be considered a floor.

This is all before considering the reality their product isn't much more than a commoditized fly on the windshield of bigger vendors, and it's easily possible to imagine a Lightsail-like competitor appearing in the meantime.