[ClumsyPilot]

> But when they committed to that mistake, they thought they were right at the time

I never met a person who commited to a mistake, and thought they were wrong at the time. Have you?

> My estimate is that CEO types are usually right at least 60% of the time with these big decisions as it were.

How do you arrive at this number? For a doctor there is a clear correct and wrong diagnosis. For a corporate CEO, who decided against doing a merger, how do you even know that decision was taken at all? How do you known if it was right or wrong? You can't simulate an alternative business.

Suppose you could simulate it accurately, and the revenue were up, profit margin is down, and stock price is up - is that good or bad? You can't even determine, non subjectively, which option is better