[davidmitchell2]

Pretty sure EU and US will not diverge so much like Russia did. Russia is also tiny market (both population, GINI, internet penetration). See EU-US Privacy Shield - courts may say but nothing practical.

May be India/Middle-Eastern countries might but still there is so much inter-dependency everywhere - no one dares to annoy other.

There are lots of executives, politicians across EU/US living + having family in either places. So unlikely.

[hyperman1]

Russia wont dare start a war, was said up to last year. We saw the EU/US relationship detoriate under Bush and then again under Trump. Extremism is on the rise on both sides of the relationship, with insane leadership popping up everywhere in at least the west. This is the kind of political shift that seems impossible until one day it becomes inevitable.

Besides, having big dependencies makes a country vulnerable to pressure and weak in negotiation. In the long term, not having a plausible alternative is just being dumb on this scale.

Also there is China appearing as a new superpower, there is the climate change that will cause political instability. Things are going to get rough for the Pax Americana in the next decades.