One year (one day actually) in a decade comes close to the very definition of a black swan event. :)
And yes, people will opt for convenience, not rational behavior:
In some cases, that black swan event will cost more than the cost of inconvenience. For example in the US, it is "inconvenient" to retrofit buildings to make them earthquake-resilient, but when the earthquake black-swan hits -and it will hit for sure, the only question is when- damages will be huge, and costs as much as 4 times higher than investments in earthquake-resilience today: https://www.optimumseismic.com/earthquake-preparedness/what-...
I'm sure Kahneman & friends have a name for this cognitive bias that somehow makes it hard for humans to correctly assess the risk and cost for black swan prevention (sometimes, because of the rarity, these computations in principle can't be made). This type of cognitive bias seems also connected with difficulties humans have in thinking on time scales that exceed their own life spans ...
Lets be honest - not having cards working for a day is not the same as earthquake. Sure people will miss trains/rent etc. 1 or 2 business may go under but for 90 % people all will be fine. Heck I am sure if many shops/metro will be free if some one like erste bank or Sparkasse does not work.
And yes, people will opt for convenience, not rational behavior:
In some cases, that black swan event will cost more than the cost of inconvenience. For example in the US, it is "inconvenient" to retrofit buildings to make them earthquake-resilient, but when the earthquake black-swan hits -and it will hit for sure, the only question is when- damages will be huge, and costs as much as 4 times higher than investments in earthquake-resilience today: https://www.optimumseismic.com/earthquake-preparedness/what-...
I'm sure Kahneman & friends have a name for this cognitive bias that somehow makes it hard for humans to correctly assess the risk and cost for black swan prevention (sometimes, because of the rarity, these computations in principle can't be made). This type of cognitive bias seems also connected with difficulties humans have in thinking on time scales that exceed their own life spans ...