[coding123]

> Are you?

I think he's saying that no-one person can be better.

Stock market crashed on 9-11. So what happened the next time the world had such a huge hit (Covid)? the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip. It didn't exist because everyone that was expecting it caused the same to not happen. So I guess if you think you know what's going to happen next. You're probably 1 of a million others that are guessing the same thing and so what you think will happen doesn't.

It also doesn't help that the government's reaction changes to major crisis events too - and those actions you can't predict- let alone what affect they will have.

It's basically a super large neural net (the largest). I mean can someone put in something crazy into GPT3 and before they enter it (something not entered previously) GUESS what's going to come out?

[lutorm]

Yeah, this is what I was thinking too. If there was a theory by which you could predict the outcome of the market, the mere presence of such a theory would affect the market such that the theory no longer applied. Sort of a Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of Economics, but worse. ;-)

[WA]

> the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip

What? The market (SPX) dipped 35% within a couple weeks in March 2020. Yes, it rose afterwards, because the FED opened the floodgates, but there was a very significant dip first.